Tuesday, June 18, 2012

Challenges before Rio+20: Act now or the ecosystems may collapse and we all have the fate of Dinosaurs

"When the Rio+20 is to be held in two days, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)  has come up with its fresh 'Global Environmental Outlook-5' finding the world has made very little significant progress on its ambitious 90 most important environmental goals in last twenty years. Adding to the challenges for the participating nations of the forthcoming Rio+20 is another report made by 22 scientists from different but related fields and published in the 'Nature' journal that concludes logically that the Earth may be driven to an irreversible tipping point if actions are not taken immediately."

Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale ‘tipping point’ highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes”.

This report, cautioning that Climate change, overpopulation, over-consumption and ecosystem destruction could lead to a tipping point that causes planetary collapse, came at the time when UN’s new report ‘Global Environmental Outlook’ (GEO-5) finds that global society has made significant progress on only four environmental issues out of ninety in the last twenty years. However the 22 scientists who contributed to the report by adding inputs from their observations apprehend that the collapse may lead to a new planetary state that would be far harsher for human well-being, let alone survival. The authors examined how human pressures are modifying our atmosphere, oceans, land, and climate to an extent in which current ecological states could collapse, impoverishing the world.

As quoted by a leading environmental news and information portal ‘Mongabay.com’ in its review of the report, "The odds are very high that the next global state change will be extremely disruptive to our civilizations. Remember, we went from being hunter-gathers to being moon-walkers during one of the most stable and benign periods in all of Earth's history," co-author Arne Mooers with Simon Fraser University explains in a press release while adding that, "In a nutshell, humans have not done anything really important to stave off the worst because the social structures for doing something just aren't there. My colleagues who study climate-induced changes through the earth's history are more than pretty worried. In fact, some are terrified."

As per Anthony Barnosky, the lead author of the report published in ‘Nature’, "The data suggests that there will be a reduction in biodiversity and severe impacts on much of what we depend on to sustain our quality of life including, for example, fisheries, agriculture, forest products and clean water. This could happen within just a few generations". Some species would likely come out as winners in this scenario, but overall biodiversity would crash with drastic impacts for human society as it is the largest beneficiary of the environment and the ecosystem.

While claiming on the basis of various findings of researches on ecological collapse that an ecosystem risks imminent collapse once 50-90 percent of it is altered, the researchers point out that today 43 percent of the world's terrestrial ecosystems have been converted to agriculture or urban use with roads covering most wild areas. Experts believe that half of the world's land surface would have been altered by 2025. Even untouched areas, however, are feeling the impacts of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution.

In order to justify the argument raised in the report, the scientists also compared today's environmental pressures to past tipping points that led to wholesale planetary changes. "The last tipping point in Earth's history occurred about 12,000 years ago when the planet went from being in the age of glaciers, which previously lasted 100,000 years, to being in its current interglacial state," explains Mooers saying further that, "Once that tipping point was reached, the most extreme biological changes leading to our current state occurred within only 1,000 years. That's like going from a baby to an adult state in less than a year." Mooers expresses his worry by adding further that "The planet is changing even faster now."

In the review titled ‘Scientists: if we don’t act now we’re screwed’ by Jeremy Hance in Mongabay.com, Co-author Elizabeth Hadly has been quoted saying that tipping points may have already occurred in some regions, leading to a ruined environment, worsening conflict, and human misery. Citing as example from her recent experience, Elizabeth says, "I just returned from a trip to the high Himalayas in Nepal, where I witnessed families fighting each other with machetes for wood—wood that they would burn to cook their food in one evening. In places where governments are lacking basic infrastructure, people fend for themselves, and biodiversity suffers” while urging that, “We desperately need global leadership for planet Earth."

GEO-5 and Challenges before Rio Summit

The Global leadership is all set to sit at the UN's Rio+20 Summit on Sustainability after twenty years since a landmark environmental agreement was signed at Rio in 1992. The summit is going to take place when a fresh report by the UN Environment Program (UNEP) finds that the world has made little significant progress in the last twenty years on its ambitious environmental goals. The UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner has also cautioned saying that, "If current patterns of production and consumption of natural resources prevail and cannot be reversed and 'decoupled,' then governments will preside over unprecedented levels of damage and degradation".

The recent report ‘Global Environmental Outlook-5’ (GEO-5) has assessed 90 of the most important environmental goals and objectives and found that significant progress had only been made in four. The four goals entail eliminating the production and use of substances that deplete the ozone layer, the removal of lead from fuel, increasing access to improved water supplies, and boosting research to reduce pollution of the marine environment.

‘According to the assessment, while some progress was shown in 40 goals, including efforts to reduce deforestation, little or no progress was detected for 24 of them, including climate change, desertification and drought. In addition, there were eight goals which showed no progress and instead further deterioration, such as the state of the world’s coral reefs’, says UN adding that, “The assessment emphasizes that countries can still meet sustainability targets if current policies are changes and strengthened and provides examples of successful policy initiatives to this end”.

Explaining the reasons why a decisive and defining transition towards a low-carbon, resource-efficient, job-generating green economy is urgently needed,” Achim Steiner has stated that “The scientific evidence, built over decades, is overwhelming and leaves little room for doubt.”While calling upon the member states that are to participate in the Rio+20, Steiner urged, “The moment has come to put away the paralysis of indecision, acknowledge the facts and face up to the common humanity that unites all peoples,” adding that “Rio+20 is a moment to turn sustainable development from aspiration and patchy implementation into a genuine path to progress and prosperity for this and the next generations to come.”

At such a juncture, the possibility, backed by scientific data and logical interpretations, of the Earth being driven to an irreversible tipping point makes the challenges enormous for the Rio+20 Summit and the member nations joining it.

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